In undersupplied market, US-China lead trade continues amid tariff negotiations

After tariffs were announced and a date of 28th September set for their imposition, Chinese buyers rushed to get in units before the deadline. With the possibility to double the tariffs next January, such 'front loading' of deals is not uncommon, Jingwen Tong, a trade policy analyst at strategic advisory firm China Policy said in emailed comments. 'If the tariffs continue escalating, however, eventually the cost of buying from tariffed suppliers will be hard to bear,' Tong added.

Chinese consortium signs up for US$6bn Algeria phosphate project

But the state is trying to wean itself off production in a pivot toward less polluting, higher value-added industries, analysts said. The government cut subsidies for the industry in 2015, according to Fitch’s China Agribusiness Report.  The Algeria deal “is exactly in line with China’s shifting strategy on trade,” said Even Pay, a senior agriculture analyst with Beijing-based advisory firm China Policy. “China has been a long-term, major producer and user of phosphate fertilizers. But China’s reserves are limited, and the environmental impact of the industry is high,” she said. “China will be happy to have more of these fertilizers on the global market. It China wants to move up the global value chain, that is, providing the capital, technology and expertise to produce phosphate fertilizer elsewhere,” she added.

China pushes modern farming as tariffs make US crops costlier

China has imposed tariffs on American soybeans, wheat and other crops in retaliation for US tariffs on Chinese goods, making those imported crops more expensive and highlighting the country’s dependence on foreign growers. 'The trade war is definitely adding pressure and adding scrutiny,' said Even Rogers Pay, an agriculture analyst at Beijing-based research firm China Policy. 'Top officials in the [Communist] Party are particularly paying attention to agriculture.'

China wants to stop buying American soybeans entirely

"Sourcing soybeans from a bunch of trade partners is both expensive and inefficient," said Even Pay, a Beijing-based agriculture analyst at research firm China Policy. "Companies are looking for cheaper, alternative sources of protein."

US-China trade war becomes a hog’s dinner, as Beijing considers reducing soybean rations for pigs

Even Rogers Pay, lead agriculture analyst at consulting firm China Policy, said that while Beijing’s attempt to damage US exports with tariffs on soybeans might have appeared to have fallen flat, the government might have had other reasons for the move.

Chinese merchants fear Trump’s trade war is hurting a popular snack: pig feet

'The trade war has begun to hurt,' Wu said. 'No one gains.' Even Rogers Pay, an agriculture analyst at Beijing consulting firm China Policy, said the swelling price of soybeans, another tariff-affected commodity, could also increase expenses for sellers. 'Most of that soy is for pig feed,' she said.

a bright future for China’s dairy market

While traditional suppliers can count on a large and growing dairy market, policymakers have expressed an interest in diversifying import sources. We anticipate rising Chinese investment along the dairy product supply chain globally, particularly in Belt and Road countries, as well as more import approvals.

interview: China-US compromise ‘essential’ for Korea peace

Sixty-five years after the Korean War ended with a ceasefire, efforts are underway to finally reach a peace agreement between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK), following a historic summit in April between the two countries' leaders. But how much progress has been made so far and what role can China and the US play? CGTN Digital spoke to Megan Cansfield, geopolitics analyst with China Policy, to get some insight.

China’s two-child policy is having unintended consequences

Helen Gao, a 30-year-old writer who works at China Policy, a think-tank in Beijing, says that having one child has become an ideal in China, just as some Americans might regard a couple with two children and a dog as the perfect-sized unit.

soybeans on front line as trade war erupts

Yet the tariff will also be damaging to China, said Even Pay, a senior agriculture analyst with Beijing-based advisory firm China Policy. 'In the short term, China is likely to look to make up for soy imports from anyone willing to sell, with Brazil, already the world’s largest soybean producer, likely to benefit. But China’s big farms are much more dependent on bulk commodity feeds than many realize. Brazil can’t export enough to meet their needs, and they can’t easily make up the lost feed with scraps from elsewhere.'

How the China-US trade row might pave the way for the soybean Silk Road

And the longer the dispute with Washington goes on, the more these emerging sources will have to gain. 'The trade war with the US is generating really good press for the agricultural investment strategy along the Belt and Road,” said Even Pay, a senior analyst at Beijing-based consultancy China Policy. “[The trade war has] made the case for diversifying import partners really concrete, so policymakers and companies that may have been sceptical before are now seeing a lot of evidence that over-dependence on any single supplier of agricultural products is risky.'

learning from Japan’s ‘lost decade’

In late-2016, China’s international buying spree was paused in the face of a crackdown, while Anbang, one of the country’s largest overseas direct investment (ODI) players, wound up falling under state control earlier this year. Despite what it may look like, Beijing wants its companies to continue investing overseas – as long as they have economic planners to keep them ‘rational’. Erlend Ek and Sophie Hassam from China Policy explain the rules that will guide Chinese investment overseas and force it to conform to national economic priorities and geopolitical strategies.