context: NDRC has repeatedly pushed for hukou reforms and new urbanisation. These will continue through the 14th 5-year plan period with counties as the main drivers.
With a targeted urbanisation rate between 60 and 70 percent in the 14th 5-year plan, new urbanisation depends on integrating rural migrants into cities, Hu Zucai 胡祖才 NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) vice director told a presser on 8 Mar 2021. More than 200 million such migrants still do not have an urban hukou (an authorised residential permit). While barriers to obtaining one will continue to be lowered and registration based on residence piloted, it is important basic public services cover everyone—with or without a hukou. Fiscal transfers and urban construction land quotas will be adjusted to accommodate rural migrants who have obtained a hukou. Their rural land rights must also be protected.
But Hu also maintains megalopolises must avoid excessive population density to prevent crises like COVID-19 outbreaks. Measures to be taken include
- adhering strictly to urban boundaries
- guiding city centres to migrate non-essential functions to the suburbs
- coordinating with surrounding cities to develop metropolitan areas
Jiangxi and Shandong fully removed all provincial hukou restrictions on 23 Feb and 4 Mar respectively, report Caijing and Economic Observer. Jiangxi, the frontrunner, faces labour shortages. Shandong did so to facilitate bidirectional mobility between rural and urban areas, hoping to encourage migrants with rural homestead use rights to return home.
Whether or not more provinces follow suit depends on their ability to provide public services. Provinces like Guangdong, with the highest GDP but also most migrants, does not have the public service capacity to give all migrants hukou, says Chen Yao 陈耀 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher. Instead, megapolises like Shanghai could relax restrictions in selected districts first to attract talented outsiders.